Incumbents vs. public sentiment

When Scott Brown shocked the world last month and won the seat to replace Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts, it seemed that everyone and anyone who ever wanted to run for public office decided this was their year, particularly if they were a Republican. Whether it's Congress, the state legislature or local races, it's candidates a-plenty this year.

This coincides with polls showing incumbents being held in lower regard than perhaps at any time ever. If there's been a time when the "power of incumbency" is at a disadvantage, this is the year. Who would have dreamed just a year ago that heavyweights like Ben Chandler and Evan Bayh would be considered beatable? Who would have surmised that the GOP might have a chance to get control of the U.S. House? Who would have thought an unknown eye doctor from Bowling Green would be considered "the favorite" in the GOP primary over "Senator in waiting" Trey Grayson? Though not an incumbent Senator, Grayson might be suffering from having held office for eight years while Rand Paul is the "outsider."

Will this be the year when incumbents fall like never before? It's a long way to go until November, and the onslaught of TV advertising will certainly change some opinions. Democrats in Congress will look to champion issues the rest of the year that will help their chances at re-election. Congressional Republicans will fight that but must also be careful to not increase their reputation as the party of no. In Frankfort, legislators are deflecting tough budget decisions until after the November elections.

For political observers like myself, it's fun to watch. How it all turns out is still anyone's guess.